Tuesday, December 7, 2010

IJM Plantation 2H 2010 analysis

Based on release of Q2 results 2010; we get       [Posted on Nov 24, 2010 Investlah KLSE forum]

                   ==== Forward EPS analysis ====
1st Quarter  31/03/2010 to 30/06/2010     29,896k (Actual)
2nd Quarter  30/06/2010 to 30/09/2010    47,336k (Actual up 58.3%)
3rd quarter   30/09/2010 to 31/12/2010    49,702k  (Estimate up another 5%)
4th quarter   31/12/2010 to 31/03/2011    47,336k  (Estimate down 5%)

Total Earnings = 174,270,000 ;  Total Outstanding shares = 801,345,714 ;

Forward EPS = 0.217               PE at RM3.70 = 17  (Super cheap)    ATTACK
                                           PE at RM4.13 = 19  (Reasonable)      BUY
                                           PE at RM4.34 = 20  (Fair value)        BUY
                                           PE at RM5.00 = 23  (Fair value)        HOLD
                                           PE at RM5.44 = 25  (Target Price)     SELL/HOLD
                                           PE at RM6.52 = 30  (Target Price)     SELL  by Momentum Trading

             ==== Current EPS Analysis ====
1st Quarter  31/09/2009 to 30/12/2009     38,507k (Actual)
2nd Quarter  30/12/2009 to 30/03/2010    15,745k (Actual)
3rd quarter   30/03/2010 to 31/06/2010    29,896k (Actual)
4th quarter   31/06/2010 to 31/09/2010    47,336k (Actual)

Total Earnings = 131,484,000 ;  Total Outstanding shares = 801,345,714 ;

Current EPS = 0.164                PE at RM2.80 = 17  (Super cheap)    ATTACK
                                           PE at RM3.12 = 19  (Reasonable)      BUY
                                           PE at RM3.28 = 20  (Fair value)        BUY
                                           PE at RM3.77 = 23  (Fair value)        HOLD
                                           PE at RM4.10 = 25  (Target Price)     SELL/HOLD
                                           PE at RM4.92 = 30  (Target Price)     SELL by Momentum Trading

 Cash  Momentum Trading yields more than 25% return within 3-6 months   Cash 



The forecast average price movement span across 6 months for IJMPLNT (based on PE 20)

Nov 2010       Dec 2010     Jan 2011      Feb 2011      Mac 2011    April 2011
Rm2.90          Rm3.18       RM3.46        RM3.74         Rm4.02      RM4.30

It is a Fixed deposit giving 48.2% of interests, better than dividends given by ASB, Maxis, Digi, Yilai, JTI, BAT............etc. 
   

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