Showing posts with label IJMPLNT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IJMPLNT. Show all posts
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Sunday, January 9, 2011
IJM Plantation Fair Value
 | « Reply #22 on: Yesterday at 08:06:19 PM » | 0  Quote |
IJM Plantations Bhd (IJMP) is one of the favourites among analysts and, what's more, they think the stock could climb higher. Seven out of 10 research houses have a "buy" call on IJMP and on average, they reckon the price can rise further to RM3.57.
IJMP shares rose 20.2 per cent to close at RM2.98 for the whole of 2010. This is better than the broader market's 19.3 per cent gain in the same period. IJMP's stock price has been rising over the last six months, in tandem with palm oil futures prices on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange.
ECM Libra, the most optimistic research outfit, estimates that the price can climb as high as RM3.99. Analyst Bernard Ching said IJMP's current share price is trading at only 17.6 times of the current year's forecast earnings.
In his note to investors, Ching said IJMP has bucked the industry trend because it reported 26.5 per cent improvement in fresh fruit bunch production in the second quarter results ended September 2010, from a year ago. This is why he sees current strong palm oil prices fuelling good earnings in the next quarter or so.
IJMP managing director and chief executive officer Joseph Tek, in an interview with Business Times in Sandakan, confirmed that more than 60 per cent of the group's planted area is at prime fruit-bearing age.
He is confident of harvesting more than 600,000 tonnes of fresh fruit bunches by March 2011.
Currently, IJMP's tree profile is such that it is able to reap 5.5 tonnes of oil per hectare in a year. "We expect the oil extraction rate to stay at 21 per cent," he said.
Over its 25-year history, IJMP has planted more than half of its 80,000ha plantation landbank in Malaysia and Indonesia.
It is interesting to note that while IJMP is just a mid-sized player, it invests substantially in oil palm seed gardens. To date, the gardens are able to produce more than two million germinated seeds a year. "We're willing to invest in the long term because we want to be self sufficient and control the quality of our planting materials," said Tek, who is trained in botany and tree breeding.
He also takes a keen interest in ensuring ecological balance at the estates. From the early days of development, Tek was able to convince shareholders of the need to retain some 800 acres as natural forest. To date, there is also a herb garden, fruit orchards and vegetable plots for community sustenance.
The group's research and development department carries out pest census regularly. Pests like bagworms and nettle caterpillars are capable of "eating up" large areas of oil palms, if they are not detected or treated early.
As a precautionary measure, a variety of creepers are planted to provide predatory bugs shelter and nectar as a biological control over pests. When there is an imbalance between pest and predator population, pesticides are used judiciously. "Basically, integrated pest management is about maintaining the right balance," Tek said.
Asked if there are plans for mergers and acquisitions, Tek said his immediate concern is to raise yield and efficiency at existing oil palm estates. But then again, he said the group is open to opportune offers. "Indonesia is a good place to expand if the price is right," he said.
IJMP shares rose 20.2 per cent to close at RM2.98 for the whole of 2010. This is better than the broader market's 19.3 per cent gain in the same period. IJMP's stock price has been rising over the last six months, in tandem with palm oil futures prices on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange.
ECM Libra, the most optimistic research outfit, estimates that the price can climb as high as RM3.99. Analyst Bernard Ching said IJMP's current share price is trading at only 17.6 times of the current year's forecast earnings.
In his note to investors, Ching said IJMP has bucked the industry trend because it reported 26.5 per cent improvement in fresh fruit bunch production in the second quarter results ended September 2010, from a year ago. This is why he sees current strong palm oil prices fuelling good earnings in the next quarter or so.
IJMP managing director and chief executive officer Joseph Tek, in an interview with Business Times in Sandakan, confirmed that more than 60 per cent of the group's planted area is at prime fruit-bearing age.
He is confident of harvesting more than 600,000 tonnes of fresh fruit bunches by March 2011.
Currently, IJMP's tree profile is such that it is able to reap 5.5 tonnes of oil per hectare in a year. "We expect the oil extraction rate to stay at 21 per cent," he said.
Over its 25-year history, IJMP has planted more than half of its 80,000ha plantation landbank in Malaysia and Indonesia.
It is interesting to note that while IJMP is just a mid-sized player, it invests substantially in oil palm seed gardens. To date, the gardens are able to produce more than two million germinated seeds a year. "We're willing to invest in the long term because we want to be self sufficient and control the quality of our planting materials," said Tek, who is trained in botany and tree breeding.
He also takes a keen interest in ensuring ecological balance at the estates. From the early days of development, Tek was able to convince shareholders of the need to retain some 800 acres as natural forest. To date, there is also a herb garden, fruit orchards and vegetable plots for community sustenance.
The group's research and development department carries out pest census regularly. Pests like bagworms and nettle caterpillars are capable of "eating up" large areas of oil palms, if they are not detected or treated early.
As a precautionary measure, a variety of creepers are planted to provide predatory bugs shelter and nectar as a biological control over pests. When there is an imbalance between pest and predator population, pesticides are used judiciously. "Basically, integrated pest management is about maintaining the right balance," Tek said.
Asked if there are plans for mergers and acquisitions, Tek said his immediate concern is to raise yield and efficiency at existing oil palm estates. But then again, he said the group is open to opportune offers. "Indonesia is a good place to expand if the price is right," he said.
I am a ECM libra & CIMB full time client. Everyday I open my online trading sites, I never bother reading their analysis reports. Main reason is, the reports are mostly a news report other than a technical one. I prefer reading those analysis published by RHB , Hong Leong and AmBank research houses.
Second thing is, IJMP is a Sandakan based plantation land. From the prolonged drought in mid 2010, many Sandakan plantation experienced a fall in FFB output by half. However from the data I see, that did not happen to Hap Seng P based in Jeroco, Lahad Datu Segama lower region. The main reason why Hap Seng P stock price is more stable than IJMP.
I expect the IJMP FV should be around RM3.30. Until Hap Seng P stock price reach Rm3.70, I would increase IJMP FV to Rm3.50.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
IJM Plantation 2H 2010 analysis
Based on release of Q2 results 2010; we get [Posted on Nov 24, 2010 Investlah KLSE forum]
==== Forward EPS analysis ====
1st Quarter 31/03/2010 to 30/06/2010 29,896k (Actual)
2nd Quarter 30/06/2010 to 30/09/2010 47,336k (Actual up 58.3%)
3rd quarter 30/09/2010 to 31/12/2010 49,702k (Estimate up another 5%)
4th quarter 31/12/2010 to 31/03/2011 47,336k (Estimate down 5%)
Total Earnings = 174,270,000 ; Total Outstanding shares = 801,345,714 ;
Forward EPS = 0.217 PE at RM3.70 = 17 (Super cheap) ATTACK
PE at RM4.13 = 19 (Reasonable) BUY
PE at RM4.34 = 20 (Fair value) BUY
PE at RM5.00 = 23 (Fair value) HOLD
PE at RM5.44 = 25 (Target Price) SELL/HOLD
PE at RM6.52 = 30 (Target Price) SELL by Momentum Trading
==== Current EPS Analysis ====
1st Quarter 31/09/2009 to 30/12/2009 38,507k (Actual)
2nd Quarter 30/12/2009 to 30/03/2010 15,745k (Actual)
3rd quarter 30/03/2010 to 31/06/2010 29,896k (Actual)
4th quarter 31/06/2010 to 31/09/2010 47,336k (Actual)
Total Earnings = 131,484,000 ; Total Outstanding shares = 801,345,714 ;
Current EPS = 0.164 PE at RM2.80 = 17 (Super cheap) ATTACK
PE at RM3.12 = 19 (Reasonable) BUY
PE at RM3.28 = 20 (Fair value) BUY
PE at RM3.77 = 23 (Fair value) HOLD
PE at RM4.10 = 25 (Target Price) SELL/HOLD
PE at RM4.92 = 30 (Target Price) SELL by Momentum Trading
Momentum Trading yields more than 25% return within 3-6 months
The forecast average price movement span across 6 months for IJMPLNT (based on PE 20)
Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mac 2011 April 2011
Rm2.90 Rm3.18 RM3.46 RM3.74 Rm4.02 RM4.30
It is a Fixed deposit giving 48.2% of interests, better than dividends given by ASB, Maxis, Digi, Yilai, JTI, BAT............etc.
==== Forward EPS analysis ====
1st Quarter 31/03/2010 to 30/06/2010 29,896k (Actual)
2nd Quarter 30/06/2010 to 30/09/2010 47,336k (Actual up 58.3%)
3rd quarter 30/09/2010 to 31/12/2010 49,702k (Estimate up another 5%)
4th quarter 31/12/2010 to 31/03/2011 47,336k (Estimate down 5%)
Total Earnings = 174,270,000 ; Total Outstanding shares = 801,345,714 ;
Forward EPS = 0.217 PE at RM3.70 = 17 (Super cheap) ATTACK
PE at RM4.13 = 19 (Reasonable) BUY
PE at RM4.34 = 20 (Fair value) BUY
PE at RM5.00 = 23 (Fair value) HOLD
PE at RM5.44 = 25 (Target Price) SELL/HOLD
PE at RM6.52 = 30 (Target Price) SELL by Momentum Trading
==== Current EPS Analysis ====
1st Quarter 31/09/2009 to 30/12/2009 38,507k (Actual)
2nd Quarter 30/12/2009 to 30/03/2010 15,745k (Actual)
3rd quarter 30/03/2010 to 31/06/2010 29,896k (Actual)
4th quarter 31/06/2010 to 31/09/2010 47,336k (Actual)
Total Earnings = 131,484,000 ; Total Outstanding shares = 801,345,714 ;
Current EPS = 0.164 PE at RM2.80 = 17 (Super cheap) ATTACK
PE at RM3.12 = 19 (Reasonable) BUY
PE at RM3.28 = 20 (Fair value) BUY
PE at RM3.77 = 23 (Fair value) HOLD
PE at RM4.10 = 25 (Target Price) SELL/HOLD
PE at RM4.92 = 30 (Target Price) SELL by Momentum Trading
Momentum Trading yields more than 25% return within 3-6 months The forecast average price movement span across 6 months for IJMPLNT (based on PE 20)
Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mac 2011 April 2011
Rm2.90 Rm3.18 RM3.46 RM3.74 Rm4.02 RM4.30
It is a Fixed deposit giving 48.2% of interests, better than dividends given by ASB, Maxis, Digi, Yilai, JTI, BAT............etc.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)